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Gold (XAU)

Outline

Here you will find factors related to gold as a monetary asset (XAU): shadow price and spot/shadow ratio.

The notion of the shadow price offers a conceptual tool to understand how gold might be valued if certain historical monetary conditions were reestablished. It is not a price forecast, but rather a theoretical framework to understand the gap between the current situation and a scenario where gold regains a more central role as a monetary anchor.

More information at the post: Gold shadow price.

Sources: World Gold Council (historical data), gold-api.com (real-time data), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (historical M0), International Monetary Fund (Federal Reserve System gold reserves).

Spot price

@2025-03-14

2,978.10

  USD/troy ounce

Shadow price

@2025-03-01

5,367.30

  USD/troy ounce

Spot/Shadow ratio

@2025-03-14

0.55

Spot price

2,978.10
USD/troy ounce

Real time spot price of gold as a combination of the bid and ask prices in various markets.  – read morelaunch

Stats
Average = 798.70
Moving average (20 points) = 2,918.50

Shadow price

5,367.30
USD/troy ounce

The shadow price of gold calculated as the relation of gold reserves held by central banks relative to 25% of the issued monetary base M0.  – read morelaunch

Stats
Average = 1,115.68
Moving average (20 points) = 5,434.25

Spot/Shadow ratio

0.55
adimensional

Relation between the spot price and the shadow price of gold, calculated as: spot price / shadow price.  – read morelaunch

Stats
Average = 1.00
Moving average (20 points) = 0.54

Constant price

2,978.10
USD/troy ounce

Historical price of gold in constant dollars as of today (calculated using the USA GDP deflators).  – read morelaunch

Stats
Average = 1,171.60
Moving average (20 points) = 2,918.50

USD Monetary base M0

5,614.20
billion USD (109)

Historical M0 monetary base series as published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.  – read morelaunch

Stats
Average = 1,171.89
Moving average (20 points) = 5,679.11
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